Cause for Hope, Not Yet Celebration

RWN tells us what the liberal media will quickly be trying to downplay - Kerry's poll numbers after the convention didn't get the boost they should have. This is great news for Bush supporters, since our convention is next and if Bush gets even a moderate bounce he should win this election.

I'm not convinced. The Republicans have the chance to mobilize their base, but they also have a chance to alienate that base. Whether Republicans can also sway moderates will depend on their strategy. The important thing, though, is to get those conservatives voting.

For the conservatives:

-point out the great difference between Bush's handling of the war and what one would expect from Kerry (one can only guess, since Kerry essentially said in a recent interview on Fox News that his plan for Iraq was really nobody's business, and he had so much experience that he would definitely get things right; in other words, screw you, commoners, you could not possibly understand my position, and I don't owe you an explanation, even before an election! What a campaign. They'll vote for him, though)

-we know Bush will continue to fight terror; what else will he do? We still need tax relief, and Bush should do more than throw a bone to his base; he should have a clear plan for cutting taxes during his next term, not just a nebulous promise of tax relief.

-make the Democrats' continuing to block judicial nominees a big issue here. This may well translate to greater gains in Congress, as conservatives will realize that Bush cannot hope to get even a moderate judge in place without a firm hold on Congress.

-Iran and North Korea delenda est. Nuff said.

For the undecideds, moderates, and other fence-sitting goons:

-get McCain up there as a foil to Kerry. McCain was in Vietnam but, unlike Kerry, didn't slander his country and his fellow soldiers when it was all done. We might also get some of those who served with Kerry, since a large plurality can't stand the guy, most of them have no comment, and only a small minority actually supports him.

-they don't want to hear about gay marriage. Don't mention it. At all.

-I hate to say it, but these people are the types who want to feel safe without being safe so tell them you're going to increase the bureaucracy to protect the country at home.

-these people are worried about Iraq. Make a point that the Iraqi people are better off now. Talk about Libya.

The convention has to be strong and conservative, or Bush will lose in November. Republican voters don't want to see any more compassion; compassion doesn't kill Saddam and compassion doesn't cut taxes to get our economy rolling again. If the convention turns into a moderate love-in, conservatives won't bother showing up in November, which means bad news for Bush and all Republicans trying to get elected.